Final forecast: crunching numbers until the very last moment...

The final forecast for the seats at the national level

The distributions for the proportion of the vote for each party

The provincial distribution of seats is below

Finally, as in the previous updates, we include the probability of absolute majority for the combination UP+PSOE

and the combination PP+C's

Last week: trends and provinces

As we have reported in previous posts, one important element of our forecasting machine is the trend of the polls. Using the latest data available the trends of the polls of the last 30 days are depicted in Figure 1.

The seats by provinces conditional on the information available up to Monday is presented in Figure 2

Dark colors marks the 75% probability and light colors the 25%

Last week

In this post we describe the forecast obtained using the information available up to today. We should notice that the data source for the survey model (the multinomial logit for voting intention as a function of demographic characteristics of the voters) are the data of the large pre-electoral of CIS (#3141) that is already available, instead of the barometers of July (2015) up to April (2016) which was the data source until the previous forecast. Figure 1 depicts the distributions of the survey model (red), the polls model (green) and the synthesys (blue).

Figure 2 shows the distribution of seats with the 90% confidence interval around the median (the small black vertical bar in the x-axis)

As in previous weeks we have also calculated the probability of absolute majority for the combination PSOE-Unidos Podemos. Figure 3 shows the distibution. The probability of this coalition to get the absolute majority is 52%.

Finally, figure 4 depicts the distribution and the probability of absolute majority for the coalition PP+Ciudadanos. In this case the probability is 14%.

Tomorrow, or better said later today, we will post the distribution by provinces and the trends in the polls.