As we have reported in previous posts, one important element of our forecasting machine is the trend of the polls. Using the latest data available the trends of the polls of the last 30 days are depicted in Figure 1.
In this post we describe the forecast obtained using the information available up to today. We should notice that the data source for the survey model (the multinomial logit for voting intention as a function of demographic characteristics of the voters) are the data of the large pre-electoral of CIS (#3141) that is already available, instead of the barometers of July (2015) up to April (2016) which was the data source until the previous forecast. Figure 1 depicts the distributions of the survey model (red), the polls model (green) and the synthesys (blue).