The results that we presented in the previous post show that there will be sorpasso of Unidos Podemos, like projected by many polls and the CIS survey presented yesterday, and that absolute majority will need a combination of political parties. Our methodology is flexible enough to allow the calculation of the probability to reach an absolute majority for different combinations of political parties, obviously conditional on being able to reach an aggreement.
As shown by Figure 1 the likelihood of the combination PP+Ciudadanos to get more than 175 seats is a meager 11.75%. The red line marks the limit of the absolute majority
Figure 1:
The combination PSOE-Unidos Podemos, as depicted in figure 2, has a probability of 55.8%
PS: Notice that our projections do not incorporate the results of the lastest CIS poll published yesterday.
