Weekly report: two weeks to go

We have updated the outcomes of the model by adding all the information of the new polls produced during the last 10 days. Notice that, following our methodology, the changes we observe in the distribution of seats by parties is associated not only to the new polls added for the updated estimation but also to the polls that have been deleted because they are more than 30 days old (we assign a zero weight to such polls). The new figures show a small improvement in the PP (median=123) and C's and a small reduction in the seat of PSOE (median=80). Notice that opposite to many polls published in the previous weeks our median forecast for PSOE was clealy above 80. The median of Unidos Podemos is basically unchanged although, as you can see from the graph, the distribution has changed noticeable.

Given the improvement of PP and C's the forecast for the probability of absolute majority for this coalition has improved from 11% to 26%

On the contrary, the recent weakness of PSOE has reduced the likelihood of absolute majority for the coalition PSOE-Unidos Podemos from 55% to 39%. Still, the coalition PSOE-Unidos Podemos has a higher probability of obtaining an absolute majority than the combination PP+C's

Tomorrow's post will discuss the tendency of the polls and its effect on our forecasts.