Trends and provinces

One of the elements of our forecasting machine is the trend in the intention of vote for each party as reflected by the latest (30 days) polls. Our model-based aggregation of polls does not simply averages them but corrects many of the biases associated with each pollster and weights pollster by their model-derived quality. It also uses a parameter to capture changes over time in the trend for the proportion of vote for each party. The latest data representing those trends are presented in the following figure

Additionally, our forecasting methodology allows the calculation of province level forecasts, which are the based for the distribution of seats that we showed two days ago. Here it is the latest forecast for vote at the provincial level

Dark colors marks the 75% probability and light colors the 25%